For several years I have assumed that the next governor of California would be a Democrat… and many more after that one. Why? Because California’s Republican Party appears to be inept (and I am not making a positive statement about the Democrats). Californians tend to be moderates: Socially liberal and fiscally conservative (except when voting on ballt propositions).

Governor Schwarzeneggar was elected in a spectacle of an election that included Gary Coleman, porn stars and who remember the other 150 candidates. There was no primary. As a sitting governor, he was able to survive the Republican primary 4 years ago. I didn’t think another moderate or Republican could make it.

Bring on Meg Whitman

What makes me think that Gov. Whitman is next? The Advertising Tax. Here’s the equation:

Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (the Supreme Court’s decision throwing out corporate election contribution limits) = Gov. Whitman

The Coalition Against the Advertising Tax in California

It started out as AB178 when it was introduced by Assm. Nancy Skinner. I was supposed to testify against it in the Revenue & Tax Committee. The hearing was canceled because there weren’t enough votes in support of it, even though Assm. Calderon, the committee chairman, was a co-sponsor.

Next it was snuck into a trailer bill to the budget. There was no public hearing. It was passed under the cover of darkness. When daylight broke, the Governator vetoed it.

Now it’s called ABX8-8. It passed the State Senate and is in 2 committees in the State Assembly.

The important thing is that there is a strong coalition in opposition being led by the California Chamber of Commerce and the Cal Taxpayers’ Association. The list of companies opposed is incredible. I am proud to have Cashbaq on a list with Google, Yahoo, ValueClick and, oh, did I mention eBay?

What’s that got to do with Meg?

Even if the Democrats get ABX8-8 through both houses of the legislature, if Governor Schwarzeneggar follows through on his commitment after he vetoed AB178 last year, he will veto the Advertising Tax again. That means that the Democrats will have pushed through the bill again with no victory. The lingering effect will be that the tech community is terrified of having the Legislature and Governor’s mansion controlled by Democrats. The smarter position would have been, assume the governor would veto it again. Wait until Jerry Brown or another Democrat is governor and then pass this bill that will be devastating to small, entrepreneurial businesses in California while having a negative impact on the state’s finances. I mean, come on, guys!

Why opposed a bill that just hurts affiliates?

The Advertising Tax doesn’t just hurt affiliates. Our businesses definitely would be devastated if ABX8-8 becomes law. Maybe these companies are opposed to the Advertising Tax because they know that it is bad for the tech sector and bad for our state’s economy.

The current form of the bill would mean that any advertising relationship establishes nexus. If that’s the case, advertising on Google AdWords and Shopzilla’s comparison shopping engine would establish nexus. So much for the Internet, especially given Drs. Foster & Smith’s recent bombshell about nexus creating a requirement to file state corporate income tax returns.

eBay is no safe harbor

eBay is concerned that if the Advertising Tax becomes law in California it will establish nexus for (are you sitting down) every eBay seller no matter where they are based. OH – MY – GAWD!!! [Cue REM]

Money can’t buy you love but it can buy you an election

Sure there have been rich folks that have run for office and lost. I had thought Meg would join their ranks. She won’t. Meg is a shoe-in now. The Democrats have guaranteed it.

Meg has enough money to pay for TV ads months before anyone else has even declared. She’s everywhere. While she doesn’t need the money from tech companies it will help both for funding and for perception. Google supports Meg Whitman. That’s 10,000+ more votes just from employees plus any Google fans out there won’t want to see politicians needlessly hurt the company. And that’s just one tech company whose employees might fear for their livelihoods. How many votes will it take to swing a close election?

Everyone knows she was CEO of eBay (if you don’t, her commercials make it clear). Now you’ll also have eBay explaining the risk to everyone in the marketplace about how the Democrats will kill eBay.

See the snowball effect yet?

Unions don’t oppose Meg

One of the strange things about the Advertising Tax is that the biggest supporters are the trade unions. My company hasn’t suggested that the State make changes that will devastate schools and firehouses. Why are the teachers’ and firefighters’ unions insisting that state legislators attack my business? They don’t seem to understand the negative impact that this will have on the state’s finances. That would be like my insisting that fire engines carry galvanized steel pipes in place of hoses. There’d be a bad impact on the state and its residents. Personally, I’ll leave it to the firefighters to figure how to use their technology best. I ask that they do the same for my business until they understand it.

Meg isn’t letting the unions attack her. She has the money to stop them. Meg has stated that if the unions attack her, she will use millions of her own money to push a ballot initiative that will require and opt-in for unions to use members’ dues for political purposes. As it stands now, individual members may opt out. This tactic will keep the unions quiet for now but there may also be backlash. November is a long way away.

Have the Dems anointed Meg?

You decide for yourself. Do you think that a Republican had a chance? Do you think that the tech sector would have coalesced behind Meg if it weren’t for the Democrats pushing the Advertising Tax?

Suggestions for the California State Legislature to help with the budget instead of ABX8-8

I wrote down a list of alternatives in my last blog post. Please refer to that if you want positive solutions that won’t hurt the State.

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The Real Effect of the Advertising Tax

by David on February 22, 2010

It finally happened. What many of us have feared from the start. Online stores closing their affiliate programs because of the Advertising Tax (aka the Affiliate Tax, Amazon Tax and several other names). Today we received notice from a store that is completely closing its affiliate program immediately (yes, effective today) due to concerns over the Advertising Tax bills that have either been passed or are pending in several states.

California Dreamin’… er, Nightmare

California, the only state I have ever called home, is considering ABX8 8 which would change the definition of nexus to include any online store that has an affiliate earning more than $10,000 per year and is based in the state. State legislators claim that they are attempting to get out-of-state retailers, namely Amazon, to collect the sales and use tax that California residents are required to pay. Amazon and other out-of-state retailers have responded that they will terminate California affiliates if the bill passes, just as they have done in other states. Overstock terminated all of its California affiliates when a similar bill was passed last year. Governor Schwarzenegger vetoed the bill and our relationship was restored.

Legislators feel that they are being strong-armed by the retailers and they see no reason to give in to such tactics. I’ll give a reason: My livelihood. State legislators will keep drawing their salaries and their stock and bond portfolios will keep their value. One of my two biggest assets will lose significant value and my income will plummet. I am not alone. Thousands, if not tens of thousands, of other California taxpayers will suffer the same fate. And if we have to start laying off employees, we’ll really see the Trickle-Down Effect. To make matters worse, the State won’t collect any additional sales tax from Amazon, Overstock or the other large online-only retailers who will terminate their affiliate relationships with California affiliates.

Governor Bev Perdue of North Carolina said it best: North Carolina is the seventh largest state in economic terms and Amazon won’t stop selling there. She was right about an irrelevant point. Amazon terminated all of its NC affiliates and still ships to the state. NC affiliates had their businesses devastated. Oh, and Amazon doesn’t collect sales tax for North Carolina. How was this a win for Gov. Perdue’s state?!?

Unintended consequences

Today we received a termination notice from Drs. Foster & Smith. You see, the good doctors aren’t so much concerned about the collection of sales tax. They are concerned that if they have nexus in many states, they will be required to file state income tax returns in all of those states. I remember as a CPA doing tax returns for a company that had nexus in 19 states. It took a team of half a dozen of us months to get the returns done. I can see why the mere threat of having to file the returns is enough even if no income tax is due in those states that have changed the definition of nexus.

Off-shore it!

I predict that next year Affiliate Summit West will be in Vancouver and Affiliate Summit East will be in London. There won’t be a reason to have a US-based conference. There won’t be any US-based affiliates if this continues.

Performance marketing offers many different types of sites for merchants to advertise on. The value of our sites won’t go away. The value will simply be picked up by foreign entities.

The Letter from Drs. Foster & Smith

It is with great regret that we have to inform you that we are shutting down affiliate marketing at Drs. Foster and Smith effective immediately  February 22, 2010.  This closure is across the board in all states with all affiliates and is not related to you only as one of our affiliates.

We regret having to do this for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that so many of you have done a great job for Drs. Foster and Smith and will be adversely affected by the loss of revenue from Drs. Foster and Smith sales.  Thank you for all you have done to promote our company on your web sites.  We apologize for the hardship and inconvenience that this creates for you.

The single reason for the decision at this time is the moving target of the ever-growing patchwork quilt of state legislatures that are considering nexus legislation relative to affiliate marketing and sales tax.  It has become increasingly difficult to determine who is considering such laws, where they are in the process and what the ramifications are in each state.  What affiliates may not be aware of is that such nexus situations do not only relate to sales tax collection, but potentially state income tax for a corporation as well.

We wish there was clarity on this issue from state to state and nationally, but there isn’t.  So until this matter is cleared up nationally, we are shutting down all affiliate marketing.  We apologize for any hardships this brings to you and your team.  We have greatly appreciated the work that you have done on our behalf.  The sudden nature of the move by California to reintroduce legislation late last week and to push for a quick vote, emphasized the ever-changing nature of this issue and our need to be ahead of such votes and decisions.

With our appreciation for your contribution to our company,

Sincerely,

Drs. Foster and Smith Affiliate Marketing Team

Solutions for State Legislators

I learned while speaking with California assemblymembers, senators and journalists that I am required to offer a solution when fighting bad legislation so here it is:

  1. Do nothing: In business, doing nothing is often a better solution. This applies to government as well. Imagine if a state legislator proposed closing all prisons and releasing all prisoners. This would save California $10,000,000,000. I think we can all agree that doing nothing is a better solution. Of course, repealing the Three Strikes law and spending more on rehabilitation would both save the State money and better society.
  2. The Federal Solution: Don’t EVER mention this to state officials. They HATE it! They have no control and they know that it will never happen. Of course, they also know that the Supreme Court ruled in Quill v. North Dakota in 1992 that legally it is the only constitutional solution but they’ll ignore that. The problem is that if Congress passes the Streamlined Sales Tax Project it will, in essence, create what feels like a new tax to voters. Even if this is the collection of an existing tax, voters won’t see it that way. To add insult to injury, Congress won’t get control of any of the money. Why would they take a risk of upsetting voters when they don’t even get to spend the money?
  3. Service Tax: Why is it that we only tax sales? Our economy has become a service economy so most of what as a state produce and consume goes untaxed. While most things that the Canadian government does is a mistake, have we looked to see what would happen if we start taxing the services of lawyers , doctors, accountants, architects, engineers, etc.?

The Silver Lining

AB178, the original nexus-changing bill in California, was amended so that it didn’t include the comparison shoping engines or search engines. ABX8 8 seems to leave pay-per-click advertising in the definition of nexus. If that happens, companies will have to decide if they want to collect sales tax (and pay state income tax?) if they want to advertise in AdWords. Oh, and every eBay transaction will be subject to California nexus. This is getting interesting. Let’s just hope that our state legislators don’t kill California’s tech sector… and especially not small business here.

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Google Can Do Everything… Almost

by DavidFebruary 12, 2010

There is a lot of buzz lately about Google trying to do too much. I’ve read people comparing Google to Microsoft… and not in a good way.
Google’s Mission
I don’t care what Google says it’s mission is (especially since my personal experience with Larry Page showed him to be evil). Google’s mission is simple: Gather, analyze [...]

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It’s not a SuperPhone, it’s a PocketComputer

by DavidJanuary 27, 2010

What electronics are you carrying in your pocket? I have an Android G1 and a dumb phone. I’m not sure what to call it. Then again, these days I’m not sure what to call an Android or iPhone.
They used to be called smart phones. Then some marketing guy decided we should call them app phones [...]

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Google Energy: It’s about the grid

by DavidJanuary 10, 2010

Google is making it tough to keep up. There is so much innovation in so many areas that tech journalists have been complaining they can’t digest it all. As an entrepreneur I’m trying to see where there is opportunity to dive in and where there is a higher likelihood to get crushed (been there, done [...]

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TimeWarner Cable vs. News Corp. vs. You

by DavidJanuary 2, 2010

To start the New Year and ring in 2010, TimeWarner Cable and News Corp. settled their dispute and Fox’s cable channels continue to be carried on TWC to 14 million American TV viewers (including the author).
Some questions
Does TWC has a right to carry these channels or does News Corp have a right to withhold these? [...]

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The OS Battle is coming to your… kitchen?

by DavidDecember 15, 2009

Last month I wrote about Google’s Chrome OS and how it might give Windows a run for its monopolistic money. I received some criticism for such musings.
It looks like Chrome OS is a cross between a souped-up Web browser and a watered-down OS. With the lack of a harddrive, users must rely on The [...]

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Once a monopoly, always a monopoly?

by DavidDecember 12, 2009

Many people in technology hate the thought of government regulation. We do a better job policing ourselves than to have bureaucrats who don’t understand what we do regulate that which they don’t understand, not to mention if politicians start to make deals about completely unrelated issues to get it passed. This is the first of [...]

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iPhone is a Hot Cheerleader / Android is a Nerd

by DavidDecember 7, 2009

Kara Swisher wrote about how she thought one of the latest Verizon Droid ads was bashing women and gays. Uh, no, not really. Maybe I’m the target. I love my G1 and would switch to Droid if it had a better thumbpad. I absolutely love the other Verizon ads. “There’s an app for that” and [...]

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Does Google’s Chrome OS mark the end of Microsoft?

by DavidNovember 19, 2009

A lot is being written about next year’s Google’s Chrome OS bringing the end of Microsoft… and for good reason.
Craigslist has revenue of $100 million. That’s amazing for such a small company. What’s more amazing is that Craigslist is pretty much all that is left of the $4 BILLION classifieds business. By giving most of [...]

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